For much of the workforce, uncertainty is quickly becoming the new normal.
By Alexis Whyte
The findings of HRO Today’s quarterly report, the Worker Confidence Index (WCI), have been released and find that American workers felt slightly less confident in their jobs in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the last quarter of 2024. Trust in company leadership further declined, marking a new low point. After declining last quarter, job security bounced back and returned to normal levels. Confidence in receiving a promotion dropped dramatically, though anticipation of a raise increased slightly.
This report examines changing attitudes of the American worker throughout the first quarter of 2025, including trends in the U.S. economy and labor markets for added context. HRO Today works to examine the reasoning behind the WCI results to understand the root cause behind shifts in worker attitudes.
- The labor market started off strong in 2025. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%, though job growth was stronger than predicted, especially in March. Though employment throughout 2024 was strong, current employment numbers do not reflect laid-off government workers. Overall, the labor market has held steady throughout economic uncertainty.
- The Federal Reserve kept rates steady. After cutting rates in September 2024, the Federal Reserve unanimously voted to keep interest rates steady at 4.5%. The decision was fueled by economic uncertainty moving forward, expectations of slow growth, and high inflation.
- Stocks faced historic declines. After ending strong in 2024, stocks declined dramatically in the first quarter of 2025. In March, the three major indexes fell. The Nasdaq Composite declined the most, by 8.2%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones dropped by 5.8% and 4.2%, respectively. Likely caused by economic uncertainty, rising inflation, and the threat of tariffs, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw their steepest one-month declines since 2022. Since each wave of the Worker Confidence Study is conducted early each month, changes impacted workers later in the month are not captured until the next wave of the study is fielded.
- US Consumer Confidence dropped drastically. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® dropped by 7.2 points to 92.9 in March, its fourth consecutive monthly decline and lowest level in over 10 years. The WCI and CCI have a predictive relationship. About two-thirds of the time, when the WCI changes in one quarter, the CCI will follow suit in the following quarter. As predicted in the fourth quarter of 2024, the CCI declined. Since the WCI went down this quarter, the CCI is predicted to decline again next quarter.
- A slow start to 2025. The U.S. economy is predicted to experience slow growth during 2025, different from original predictions. As President Trump announced potential trade tariffs, economists dropped their predicted GDP expansion for 2025. Coupled with high inflation, economic conditions have Goldman Sachs concerned about a potential recession, though their prediction relies significantly on international tariffs impacting global trade.13 Odds of a recession have ranged from 20% to 45% in the U.S. through the first quarter, higher than the chances of a global recession. Though the U.S. economy was stunted in the first quarter, additional growth will depend on the impact tariffs could have on global trade, inflation levels, and domestic consumption.
Taking all of this into account, worker confidence decreased slightly in the firstquarter, by 0.1 points to 107.6. Confidence fell for most demographic segments, especially for African Americans and workers ages 18 to 24. Workers feel significantly less confident in receiving a promotion. Anticipation of a promotion decreased by 5.5 points from last quarter to 119.7, marking a steep year-over-year decline of 9.4 points. After the U.S. government rolled back DEI initiatives and some companies followed, anticipation in receiving a promotion among several segments, especially women and people of color, plummeted.
Overall, job security rose. Driven by heightened levels of job security among men, younger workers, and higher earners, the job security index grew by 4.8 points to 98.3. On-site workers have the lowest level of worker confidence. Hybrid workers boast the highest level of confidence, at 108.6. Though remote workers had the lowest level of confidence previously, their confidence is now about the same as on-site workers, at 105.9 and 105.8, respectively.
To view the entire report, sponsored by Yoh, visit www.hrotoday.com.
