HRO Today research finds that worker confidence did improve slightly both quarterly and year-over-year in 2025.
By Maggie Mancini
Research by Alexis Whyte
American workers felt more confident in the fourth quarter compared to the third, according to findings from HRO Today’s quarterly Worker Confidence Index (WCI). Across nearly all indices—likelihood of a promotion, trust in company leadership, and likelihood of a raise—workers saw a rise in confidence. However, job security fell for the third consecutive quarter.
The report examines shifting attitudes and levels of confidence among American workers, including workforce changes, economic conditions, and labor market volatility. HRO Today aims to understand the causes behind the WCI results and shifts in worker perceptions.
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Worker confidence increased to its highest level in 2025 during the fourth quarter. In three of the past five years, WCI reached its highest yearly point in the fourth quarter of the year, and 2025 is no exception—confidence increased by 2.4 points to 111.5.
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Trust in company leadership continues its historic rise. After declining in the first quarter of 2025, trust in company leadership rose across three quarters, growing by 9.7 points year-over-year. Overall, 47.7% of employees trust company leadership, the highest level since the third quarter of 2020. This can be attributed to a stark increase in trust among workers ages 55 to 64, African Americans, and those earning between $75,000 and $100,000.
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The confidence gap between men and women increased. As men’s confidence is propelled by promotion expectations and women’s confidence falls due to declining promotion and raise expectations, there is now a difference of 10.5 points between their levels of confidence.
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The labor market grew minimally. The labor market stagnated in the second half of 2025, with 105,000 jobs lost in October. However, growth in November and December managed to offset this shrinkage. The unemployment rate fluctuated throughout the fourth quarter but ended at 4.4%. The quit and separation rates have reached historic lows at 2% and 3.2%, respectively.
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U.S. consumer sentiment remains historically low. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell by 3.8 points in December to 89.1, bringing the quarterly average down to 92.2. Consumers’ assessment of business and labor market conditions also declined dramatically. Typically, the WCI and CCI have a predictive relationship. About two-thirds of the time, the CCI will mirror the WCI’s activity from the prior quarter. Recently, the predictive relationship has been strained amid lingering uncertainty around trade and labor market conditions.
Taking all of this into account, worker confidence did improve slightly both quarterly and year-over-year, with 2.4 points and 3.8 points, respectively. In particular, American workers are the most optimistic regarding the likelihood of receiving a promotion, which increased by 4.9 points to 127, its highest point in 2025. Job security decreased slightly, by 0.9 points to 95.3, its lowest point in 2025. Still, all indices and the WCI increased year-over-year.
When examined by race, worker confidence increased among African American and Hispanic workers by 8.9 points and 5.7 points, respectively. After increasing last quarter, confidence among Caucasians fell by 1.3 points to 99.6. Again, African Americans hold the highest level of confidence at 144.8, though this level decreased year-over-year.
