The Worker Confidence Index (WCI) report examines changing attitudes and perspectives of the American worker. However, HRO Today‘s traditional WCI report is based on quarterly findings, found here, through extensive online interviews of workers. Since the US economy and labor market have been markedly volatile and ever-changing, HRO Today is publishing shorter, monthly updates to the WCI to further examine the root cause behind quarterly changes and shifts in worker attitudes.
May 2026:
The monthly WCI and its indices all declined after April’s sudden jump. Job Security felt the smallest decline, by 2.8 points, likely caused by a stagnate labor market experiencing mild growth amid consistent layoffs. Unemployment has been steady around 4.3% and 7.6 million jobs were added in April, the most since May 2024. The Likelihood of a Raise index felt the starkest drop, by 17.8 points, as raises are less typical mid-year and the economy constricts. Overall, workers are feeling less confident, though the level of decline is mainly attributed to falling expectations in a raise.
Confidence among American workers is dropping amid prolonged conflict in the Middle East, rising prices and inflation, and an unmoving labor market. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index® dropped by 0.7 points to 93.1. The Present Situation Index, measuring current business and labor market performance, decreased by 3.2 points, though the Expectations Index, measuring short-term business and labor market outlooks, rose by 74.4 points. Though American workers are less confident now, they are optimistic for the future.
After high levels of confidence in receiving both a raise and a promotion in April, both indices declined. However, this behavior can be typical mid-year, and the likelihood of a promotion is still up dramatically year-over-year, likely as retention strategies continue. Notably, employee trust in company leadership declined to its lowest level of 2026. Rising levels of distrust during times of geopolitical and economic tension can affect overall productivity, retention, and engagement. Once trust in company leadership is lost, earning it back can be particularly difficult, especially if retention strategies remain limited to offset organizational costs. Employee behavior and trends during the next few months will be pivotal.
April 2026:
After sharp declines in March, the monthly WCI recovered and hit a new high for 2026. According to the Conference Board, consumer confidence was up by 0.6 points in April, though consumer assessment of the current state of the labor market and business conditions declined. Overall, workers are feeling more confident after the stark drop felt in February.
Again, job security is low. The number of monthly layoffs has been fairly unchanged throughout the first few months of 2026, hovering around 1.9 million. Additionally, job growth was minimal as the labor market continues its stagnation. Jobs and hiring within the federal government and the professional/business services sectors fell. As oil prices surge and the conflict in Iran continues, American workers’ feelings of job security will fluctuate, especially as particular industries are impacted by economic constraints.
Workers are feeling more confident in receiving both a promotion and a raise, likely as part of ongoing retention strategies. Plus, workers might expect higher levels of recognition mid-year as the end of Q2 looms. Trust in company leadership rebounded to 103.1. Organizational transparency and authenticity, especially during times of global conflict and instability, are imperative to keeping employee trust. As geopolitical turmoil continues, trust in company leadership will either strengthen or fall dramatically.
March 2026:
Overall confidence declined, by 4.4 points to 98.3, following February’s peak. Three of the four indices declined. Job Security dropped the most, by 11 points to 88.1. Likelihood of a Promotion saw the sole increase.
In March, 178,000 jobs were added as the health care and construction sectors continue to grow, surpassing initial growth expectations. Considering the downward revisions to jobs added in February, this marks the largest monthly job growth since December 2024. However, as downward revisions become the norm, job growth does not always directly impact overall feelings of job security, especially when job growth is centralized to specific sectors.
Workers, along with the economy, are feeling the impact of the conflict in Iran. Energy costs, inflation, and consumer prices continue to soar, negatively impacting overall worker confidence. Consumer sentiment hit a historic low, a possible signal to prolonged economic stagnation as workers prepare for more economic instability. The overall extent of this impact has yet to be determined.
February 2026:
In February, confidence increased significantly, by 9.8 points to 102.7. This dramatic increase indicates renewed optimism among workers, likely driven by improving short-term expectations. American workers felt a stark jump in the likelihood of receiving a promotion and in company leadership trust.
Over 130,000 jobs were added in January, fueling worker confidence. Interestingly, most of this growth affects blue-collar jobs, which historically hold a lower level of overall confidence.
This renewed sense of optimism is unlikely to last following US attacks on Iran. Times of conflict can easily exacerbate employee fear of job loss or lead to wavering levels of company trust, depending on organizational responses and economic impact. Additionally, worker anticipation in job advancement may vary, along with trust in company leadership as organizations navigate an unpredictable landscape.
January 2026:
Overall worker confidence declined to 92.9 to start 2026. Post-holiday and end-of-year slowdowns can occur without longstanding implications, especially as workers may receive promotions or raises, affecting optimism to start the year. Additionally, seasonal positions usually end throughout the first months of the year.
Consumer confidence dropped in January to 84.6, its lowest level in over a year. This dampening sentiment may cause workers to reassess their overall expectations.
Unemployment is relatively stable at 4.3% as the health care and construction sectors led job growth. The number of job openings, hires, and separations were all relatively unchanged as the labor market stagnates to start the year.
