A new report from The Conference Board shows U.S. leaders are increasingly cautious, but wage and investment plans are generally holding firm, as well as hopes for AI to improve productivity. 

By Gillian Manning
Manager of Content Strategy

The Conference Board’s report Measure of CEO Confidence shows a drop in how executives view the overall state of the business. Confidence fell to 46 in the fourth quarter of 2026, down from 52 in Q3 and the lowest reading since Q2 2025. A score below 50 means more negative than positive responses. Of the 131 CEOs surveyed, 41% expect economic conditions to worsen over the next six months, up sharply from 19% last quarter. 

Chief Economist Dana M. Peterson says the drop marks a shift from mild optimism to “moderate cautiousness,” possibly spurred by rising geopolitical tensions and elevated oil prices during the survey period. CEOs were also less upbeat about their own industries, with 28% expecting conditions to worsen, up from 13% in Q3. 

Hiring plans are mixed. While 33% of CEOs plan to expand their workforce, 31% expect to reduce it, up from 28% last quarter. Another 36% anticipate no change. Still, Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., vice chairman of The Business Council, notes that most CEOs are maintaining or increasing capital investment plans despite weaker economic views. 

The Conference Board also found that: 

  • 16% of CEOs plan wage hikes of 4% or more, up from 9% in Q3; 
  • 36% expect to increase capital spending, up from 31%, while 53% plan no changes; 
  • 61% anticipate no hiring problems or only some problems in certain areas over the next 12 months; and 
  • cyber (71%), AI and new technology (64%), and geopolitical (58%) remain the top industry risks, each rising in intensity from Q3. 

Special questions on AI adoption revealed that CEOs primarily see the technology as a path to productivity. The Conference Board’s report says that: 

  • 48% of CEOs expect AI to deliver its greatest value through productivity gains and operating-cost reduction; 
  • 40% say failing to transform the organization fast enough is the biggest AI-related threat to enterprise value; and 
  • 94% name cybersecurity threats as their top AI-related concern, and 25% are concerned that adoption is moving too slowly.  

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