Worker confidence holds course in third quarter.
By the Editors
Worker confidence continued its upward trend in the third quarter of 2016. The Worker Confi dence Index (WCI) from HRO Today and Yoh Recruitment Process Outsourcing reports a slight increase between the second and the third quarters, from 99.7 to 99.9. The change was driven by a slight increase in confi dence and trust in the leadership, both of which rose 3.8 percentage points.
These results indicate a positive trend over the last year. Three out of four indices increased since the results of the third quarter of 2015.
Job security remained relatively consistent over the past year, and women continue to report higher levels of confi dence in their job security than men. In general, minorities tend to anticipate job loss more than whites. Although minorities grew more confi dent in their job security during the third quarter of 2016, whites expressed more concern. The report also showed that the youngest, poorest, and least educated respondents are the most concerned about job security.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) remains largely consistent with job security study fi ndings. At the end of the third quarter, there were 729,000 more workers than there were at the end of the second quarter, bringing the total workforce to 111.7 million. As in the second quarter of 2016, there was also a 1-percent increase in the number of female workers in the third quarter of 2016, and a 2-percent increase compared to the third quarter of 2015.
Overall, optimism about the likelihood of a promotion has remained steady over the past year as well. Results show that men are consistently more optimistic about receiving promotions than women. There is also a strong negative correlation between age and promotion; the older one gets, the less optimistic they are about the likelihood of promotion. Those with the lowest income were the most optimistic about their chance of a promotion. In addition, whites were less likely than both minority groups to anticipate a promotion, and those with a college degree had highest levels of optimism about receiving a promotion.
The likelihood of getting a raise decreased slightly in the third quarter of 2016. The likelihood of raise decreased slightly when compared to the second quarter, but it still holds a higher position than the same time last year. Men are signifi cantly more likely than women to anticipate a raise. Millennials are most inclined to believe that they will receive a raise after their next review, but older generations are less optimistic. Additionally, minorities were more likely than whites, and workers with at least some college education more likely than those with less education, to report positive expectations of a raise.
Trust in company leadership is at its highest in the past five quarters; 43 percent of respondents indicate they trust their company’s leadership. Overall, men are more likely than women to trust company leadership, and all but one age segment (35- 44) expressed more confidence in the company leadership in the third quarter of 2016 than they did in the second quarter. Furthermore, there is an inverse linear relationship between trust and income, where as income increases, so does trust. Company leaders are normally the most highly compensated employees in an organization, so in effect, respondents in the higher income segment are more likely than in other income segments to be rating themselves. Likewise, people with a college education are more likely to trust their leadership, and minority respondents were more likely to trust leadership than white respondents.
Although all of these measures seem to suggest a stagnant economy this quarter despite rising employee confidence, the unemployment rate increased slightly from 4.9 percent to 5 percent.
Fourth quarter results will likely be impacted by the outcome of the presidential election. So far, there is a “Trump bump” on stocks, which has seen the S&P 500 rise more than 3 percent since the election. For more information from this quarters’ WCI, visit www.hrotoday.com.
