Workers are feeling more upbeat about advancement prospects.
By Larry Basinait
In the third quarter of 2019, the Worker Confidence Index (WCI) increased by 11.8 points from the second quarter, bringing the index to 116.7—its highest level since the study’s inception.
Three of the four indices that comprise the overall worker confidence index increased in the third quarter, including the likelihood of a promotion, trust in company leadership, and the likelihood of a raise. Likewise, these three indices remained higher compared to one year ago, with the job security index being the only metric to fall, down by 2.7 points.
Females once again reported higher levels of confidence in their job security than males in the third quarter of 2019, continuing the trend. Study findings show that fear of job loss among women decreased slightly by 0.2 percentage points from the second quarter of 2019, while the percentage of males who felt that they would lose their job increased from 11.1 percent in the second quarter to 13.8 percent in the third quarter. This result drove the overall decrease in the job security index.
Worker perceptions about the likelihood of a raise increased by 14.3 points from the second quarter of 2019 to 121.8 in the third quarter—only the third time the index has risen over 10 points from the prior quarter. Both males and females felt more confident about getting a raise, with 37.3 percent of males and 29.2 percent of females anticipating a raise of at least 3 percent at their next review. In terms of age, study findings show that as employees get older, they are more likely to believe that their wages have stagnated.
Just over one-third (35.1 percent) of individuals between the ages of 45 and 54 believe they will receive a raise of 3 percent or more after their next review, marking the first time that over 35 percent of this age segment has felt that way.
The belief in the likelihood of a promotion rose in the third quarter to 133.9. The likelihood of promotion index rose 23.9 points from last quarter, the largest increase since the inception of the study. This was driven by more females feeling that a promotion was likely, up 6.2 percentage points from the second quarter to 22.1 percent. Respondents with annual incomes over $100K felt the most optimistic about the likelihood of promotion, with 36.1 percent believing a promotion was likely. This income group has the most disposable income, and consumer spending directly impacts the GDP.
The Worker Confidence Index has correctly predicted the direction of consumer confidence for the next quarter’s end in 14 of the last 18 quarters. The third quarter of 2019 WCI suggests that the average quarterly Consumer Confidence Index will increase at the conclusion of the fourth quarter.